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Bayesian | Super Market
BA
Bayesian
Joined December 2025
Profile Statistics
6
Markets Created
Created
Markets Created
Traded
Markets Traded
Comments
Polymarket
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Yes
4%
·
No
96%
Imported
Polymarket
Settled
Will TikTok be banned by March 31?
Imported
Polymarket
Settled
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Imported
Manifold
Settled
Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 4.6 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?
Imported
Manifold
Settled
Will Elon Musk opensource Grok 3 within 6 months? By Feb 23 2026
Imported
Manifold
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term 2025-2029?
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
94%
"The New Norm" ends
91%
+198 more outcomes
Imported
