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What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)? | Super Market
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term 2025-2029?
Imported
Imported Market
By
Bayesian
Created
1/16/2026
Settles
1/21/2029
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Takes
Signal
Chart
Info
Comments
Takes
Signal
Select Outcome
"covfefe" posted again
"The New Norm" ends
<1.5 million civilian federal employees
10% fewer government agencies
2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025
2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart
2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart
3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest
30 year treasury rate >15.00%
54 or more Republican senate seats
55 or more Republican senate seats
A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress
A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations
A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies
A hurricane will be nuked
A major war in Asia occurs
A measurable decrease in chronic disease
A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress
A member of the Trump family runs for Congress
A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model
A national ban on gender-affirming care
A new supreme court justice appointed
A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act
A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically
A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling
AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)
American Manned Lunar Landing
Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.
Ann Selzer arrested
Another pandemic
Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out
Anthony Fauci goes to prison
Anthony Fauci is convicted
Anthony Fauci is indicted
Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government
any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state
Approval < 25%
Approval < 35%
At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment
Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears
Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000
Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve
BTC falls below $38,000
Cannabis is federally legalized
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan
China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty
Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice
Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research
Congress overrides a presidential veto
Constitutional Amendment
Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US
Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives
Department of Defense renamed to Department of War
DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices
Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands
Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r
Dow rises above 65,000
Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt
Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE
Fair elections in 2028
FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared
Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader
his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028
Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats
inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters
Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country
Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants
Iran acquires a nuclear weapon
IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory
JD Vance elected President
Joe Biden dies
John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States
John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader
Laura Loomer gets any government role
Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government
McDonald's reopens in Russia
memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park
Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker
Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference
military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit
Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico
MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday
New James Bond actor is presented
New national park created
New US national anthem
NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)
NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized
One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government
p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)
plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East
Polymarket becomes legal in the United States
Recess appointment to SCOTUS
Record level unemployment
Repeal obamacare
Republican lose a House seat in a special election
RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan
RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point
Russo-Ukrainian War ends
Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections
Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US
Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries
Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over
Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled
SpaceX is nationalized
Starship lands on Mars
Steve Bannon goes to prison again
Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire
The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems
The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known
The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem
The department of education gets desolved
The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels
The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump
The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25
The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)
The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point
The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)
The US leaves the World Health Organization
The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty
there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)
There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits
transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked
Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits
Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him
Trump and Melania divorce
Trump and Obama shake hands
Trump announces he is tired of winning
Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress
Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding
Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide
Trump bans abortion nationwide
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them
Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees
Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border
Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory
Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year
Trump dies
Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)
Trump enacts jus primae noctis
Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary
Trump extends his term past 4 years
Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)
Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.
Trump gets covid (again)
trump gets hospitalized
Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital
Trump gets shot
Trump gives himself a nickname in third person
Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's
Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more
Trump is assassinated
Trump is seen shirtless
Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle
Trump loses the fake tan
Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets
Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs
Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days
Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days
Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)
Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC
Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way
Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi
Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement
Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten
Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)
Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long
Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)
Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
Trump runs for a third term
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
Trump says a racial slur
Trump says anything that is pro animal rights
Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)
Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US
Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people
Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)
Trump visits Africa
Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking
Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute
trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)
TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD
Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day
Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program
United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)
US Invasion of any North/South American country
US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")
US national bitcoin reserve created
USA experiences a recession.
Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)
wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate
War is declared against another nation
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